Key Street Shops
- Polymarket bookmakers have a 78% chance of SEC approval for Solana ETFs in 2025.
- Five asset managers have filed applications for the Solana ETF but are facing challenges with SEC approval.
Bettors on the predicted market Polymarket is pricing in a 78% probability that the SEC will approve spot Solana ETFs in 2025, after previous approvals for Bitcoin and Ethereum investment products.
Created just yesterday, the poll it started at 45% and has now risen to over 70%.
Even with hopes of possible regulatory approval this year, traders are not convinced any decision will come before the second quarter. A separate Polymarket poll from November shows 57% odds for Solana ETF approval by July 31, down from 70% earlier this week.
Five asset managers – Grayscale, VanEck, 21Shares, Bitwise, and Canary Capital – have filed applications for Solana ETFs since January 2.
The outcome will largely depend on the SEC’s stance on SOL. Currently, SOL’s legal status is uncertain due to ongoing scrutiny by the securities regulator. The SEC has classified SOL, along with several other crypto assets, as security in its lawsuits against Binance and Coinbase.
The SEC has notified at least two potential ETF issuers that it will rejection of their Solana ETF applicationaccording to FOX Business reporter Eleanor Terrett. Sources indicate that the SEC is unlikely to approve new crypto ETFs “under the current administration.”
However, with the Trump administration coming in and expected changes in SEC leadership, ETF experts are optimistic about the future of ETFs that track the sixth largest crypto asset in the world.
Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas expect new altcoin ETFs in 2025, including products tracking Litecoin, Hedera, XRP, and Solana, and new leadership at the SEC is critical to the approval of XRP and Solana ETFs.
Nate Geraci, President of the ETF Store, also predicts Solana spot ETFs will receive approval this year.
Top 5 crypto ETF forecasts in order of confidence…
1) Combined spot address btc & eth ETFs (clear)
2) Spot eth ETF trading options
3) Spot btc & eth ETF creation/redemption in kind
4) Spot eth ETF staking
5) Spot sol ETF approved
Actually, all these will happen.
— Nate Geraci (@NateGeraci) January 2, 2025
On Dec. 19, ETF manager Volatility Shares submitted filings for three ETFs targeting Solana futures, although such futures are not currently available on CFTC-regulated exchanges.
Balchunas and Geraci see these developments as positive signs for the future approval of Solana ETFs.
