In March 27, 2025 analysis, entitled “Where is Bitcoin led next? A signal hidden in real-time data”, truflation highlights a recurring phenomenon: Each time its inflation index experiences a pronounced downward trend that later pauses or turns, Bitcoin has tended to flood soon afterwards.
Where is Bitcoin on the way next?
Truflation research points to a background shaped by After-death by Covid-19When central banks all over the world, interest rates lowered almost zero and funnel liquidity in the economy. That period of simple money overlapped with Bitcoin’s driving until all the time in 2021. In 2022 and 2023, however, persistent inflation took grip, which got US Federal Reserve to reverse the course. Interest rates and quantitative sharpening became the primary tools for fighting prisons, where the Federal Reserve explicitly strives to lower consumer price inflation to 2%.
According to the Truflation Report, real-time inflation readings reached as low as 2% in June 2023. The official consumer price index (CPI), published by Bureau of Labor Statistics, that pattern reflected about a month and a half later, in accordance with 3% in July 2023. Instead, it swung between higher and lower boundaries and showed a cyclical pattern of disinflation which would then stabilize or reverse the course. Truflation now considers that each of these cyclic “bending points” correlates closely with subsequent rises in Bitcoin’s price.
The report refers to four distinct periods from September 2023 to September 2024 when the truflation index trends downwards and then either flattened or recovered. In each of these cases, Bitcoin’s price rose shortly after. Truflation suggests that a fifth such event can now be developed: the inflation index dropped steeply in early 2025 and beat about 1.30% – a level that has not seen in several months – before recovering to 1.80%. This situation is reminiscent of previous disinflation trays, which, based on truflation’s data, predicted a new wave of bitcoin purchases.
“When truflation’s disinflation trend pauses or turns, Bitcoin tends that rally shortly after. This pattern has repeated a few times already – and if the story rhymes it can develop again soon,” says the analysis.
The underlying reason, explains truflation, revolves around Bitcoin’s forward -looking nature and its sensitivity to changes in Liquidity terms. Strong disinflation usually encourages speculation that the Federal Reserve can be made raising prices and can soon become a dovish. While steep and unmatched disinflation can trigger fear of recession, a slowdown or break in the disinflation trend often assures the markets that the economy does not slip in an economic downturn.
This “Soft Landing” scenario Embolden’s risk-on sentiment. Traders and investors who believe that inflation has been sufficiently subdued to delay further sharpening – or to speed up the interest rate cuts – completely channels their optimism to assets such as Bitcoin.
The report recognizes that no single data, including truflations own, has absolutely turning over an asset as complex and generally traded as bitcoin. However, it emphasizes that real -time inflation expectations reflect on the entire global markets and affect shares, goods and foreign exchange trading, in addition to crypto. By predicting changes in these expectations, some investors may be before the curve when they are official CPI reports And the central bank statement confirms or contradicts the developing trend ultimately.
“Truflation does not affect Bitcoin in a vacuum. No single data source ever does. But inflation expectations are rippled over a wide range of markets – from shares to raw materials – and especially to bond rates and forex markets,” concludes the analysis.
At press time, BTC traded to $ 84,461.
Featured image created with Dall.e, chart from tradingview.com
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