Veteran trader Peter Brandt on Thursday offered a much slower timetable for Bitcoin’s next big rally, saying the cryptocurrency may not reach $200,000 until around the third quarter of 2029.
According to his post on X, Brandt remains a longtime supporter of Bitcoin but warned that the climb to $200,000 will take time.
After an October peak, a steep drop?
Bitcoin hit a new high of $125,100 on October 5. Since then, it has fallen more than 25%, wiping out about $710 billion in market value.
Based on Coingecko data, the token was traded at one point and briefly for $83,500 dropped to $82,650 as the markets moved. Prices have bounced and fallen again, leaving many traders concerned about timing and risk.
Full disclosure folks
Of my maximum Bitcoin position ever, I still own 40%, at a price that is 1/20 of Saylor’s average buy.
I am a long term bull on Bitcoin. This dump is the best thing that could happen to Bitcoin. The next bull market in Bitcoin should take us to $200,000 or so. To…— Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) November 21, 2025
Brandt referenced earlier commodity patterns to make his point. He compared Bitcoin’s behavior to the 1970s soybean market, which saw a rapid spike followed by a sharp fall when supply outstripped demand. In that episode, soybeans fell about 50% after the peak, Brandt reminded followers.
Technical signals become bearish
Meanwhile, market research firm CryptoQuant has flagged the withdrawal as most bearish phase since the current bull run began in January 2023.
Its Bull Score Index fell to 20 out of 100 last week, a level that signals weak demand, negative price momentum and thinner stable coin liquidity.
The platform also pointed out that Bitcoin slipped below its 365-day moving average, a technical mark that had held through previous corrections in this cycle.
Still, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju recently suggested that the market may not have officially entered bear territorywhich shows how readings and interpretations can differ.
Institutional selling increases the pressure
Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards warned that institutional selling has been unusually heavy, saying he’s “never seen so much institutional selling as a percentage of Coinbase Volume in the history of it.”
That flow, according to several analysts, has made the current pullback deeper than previous pullbacks during the same rally.
Bitcoin has _never_ seen as much institutional selling as a percentage of Coinbase volume in its entire history. pic.twitter.com/YzSzpGQmBN
— Charles Edwards (@caprioleio) November 21, 2025
Veteran Trader’s Cautious Timeline
Brandt’s outlook contrasts with more optimistic talk from the crypto industry. Reports have revealed that BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes and market veteran Tom Lee were among those who reiterated hopes for $200,000 before the year closed.
Back Seen As Healthy By Some
Despite Bitcoin’s current sluggish state, Brandt described the recent dump as beneficial. He argued that a cleanse now could clear excesses and set up stronger moves later.
Other well-known figures have given much earlier targets – some expected $200,000 by the end of the year, and some, including ARK Invest’s Cathie Wood and Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong, have forecast $1 million by 2030.
Other analysts pointed to historical patterns in which painful corrections were followed by renewed gains, though they added that timing these reversals is difficult.
Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
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