Bitcoin price performance in the last quarter of 2025 has been a major source of concern for the crypto crowd – and rightfully so. At some point in the past few weeks, the premier cryptocurrency looked set to end the year deep in the red zone.
Over the past week, the Bitcoin price has shown itself signs of a healthy recoveryafter reclaiming the significant support level of $90,000. According to one crypto expert, the market leader could perform better than what the charts are currently showing.
What has BTC already priced at?
In a Nov. 28 post on social media platform X, Bitwise’s European head of research, Andre Dragosch, provided an answer to “what is already priced?” question constantly faced by Bitcoin investors.
According to the macro analyst, the flagship cryptocurrency is pricing in the most bearish global growth outlook since 2022 (marked by Federal Reserve tightening and the collapse of FTX) and 2020 (during the depths of the Covid-19 pandemic).
Dragosch revealed that he could determine the level of global growth expectations Bitcoin is already pricing using a set of leading macro surveys. “Bitcoin is essentially pricing in a recessionary growth environment,” the Bitwise researcher wrote.
Dragosch added:
Personally, I tend to be a macro contrarian as Bitcoin can both under and exceed the prevailing macro outlook. Pricing of all assets is essentially macro sentiment. This is also where most of the alpha is done, in my opinion.
As previously mentioned, the last time macro expectations were this pessimistic was in 2020 and 2022 – with Bitcoin underperforming the macro outlook before making a strong comeback. Dragosch believes that a reenactment of this scenario is currently underway.
Source: @Andre_Dragosch on X
The Bitwise European Head of Research then noted that “global growth expectations will accelerate from here, based on the amount of previous monetary stimulus, pointing to a re-acceleration well into 2026.”
Dragosch mentioned that last time it was this asymmetric risk-reward was during the pandemic, where the Bitcoin price had risen 6x by the end of the year after first collapsing during the shock of March 2020. This macro setting can be likened to a “coiled spring or a ball under water.”
According to the macro analyst, Bitcoin’s current trajectory appears to take the form of a “coiled spring” – meaning the price could be poised for a violent move after a period of compression. Dragosch then concluded his analysis by saying that investors are not even bullish enough.
Bitcoin price at a glance
At the time of writing, the price of BTC is around $90,880, reflecting no significant movement in the last 24 hours.
The price of BTC on the daily timeframe | Source: BTCUSDT chart on TradingView
Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView
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