Bitcoin and Fed interest rate cuts have seen carefully when traders prepare for the Federal Reserve September 17 -meeting. Cryptocurrency Market Rally has built speed and Fed Rate Cut pre -prospects suggest that either 25 or 50 points can be on the table. At the time of writing, this Altcoin over voltage is run by months with simpler money expectations, although the actual scale for all decisions can trigger different reactions to digital assets right now.
Also read: Crypto pumps that fed cut odds double – bitcoin traders eye 50bps
Crypto rally is being built when the Fed Rate Cut pre -prospects drive Bitcoin Surge and Altcoin winnings
25 -base point baseline
Most analysts expect a quarter Bitcoin Fed speed as the baseline scenario right now. Charlie Bilello has noted that the Fed funds are expected to be lowered 25 BPS this week, and the bond market monitor that Shazi claims that the decision has already been locked in.
The Kobeissi stated:
“The 10 -year return is officially falling below 4.00% for the first time since April 4. The markets are now fully pricing in three 25 BP’s interest rate cuts at the end of the year.”
Breaking: The 10 -year returns officially fall below 4.00% for the first time since April 4.
The markets are now completely pricing in three 25 BP’s interest rate cuts at the end of the year. pic.twitter.com/nwkapmyowg
– Kobeissi letter (@kobeissilettes) September 11, 2025
“There is probably a 99% chance that an interest rate reduction will be announced on Wednesday. No one will be surprised by it. That is why it is often a sell-the-New event. Once we have come past that news, Thursday will probably be green, and Friday will probably be some chaos that ends green.
Bitcoin’s history with speed cuts shows that the voltage is often followed by steep sales. Analyst Kvinten be clear about the fact that:
“Last time the FED reduction rate was December 18, 2024. Bitcoin was $ 106,000 and dumped 30% within weeks.”
With Bitcoin trading over $ 115,000 right now, traders are careful that similar dynamics can play again.
Surprise on 50 points
A larger Bitcoin Fed interest rate reduction remains possible despite lower probability calculations. Standard Chartered expects a 50-BP movement, although the Kalshi odds propose only a 9% chance that this will happen. This scenario can release significant liquidity, and it can overload both altcoin -rally and wider crypto -rally -momentum.
JPMorgan’s assessment suggests that a reduction of 50 BPS has only a probability of 7.5% but can move shares by 1.5% in both cases. Such aggressive relief would probably break the recurring sales cycle by signaling the Fed’s willingness to provide deeper liquidity.
Fed will lower prices in just two days.
JP Morgan and other major analysts expect a market dump before reversing.
Scenario 1: $ BTC will dump against $ 104,000 level before reversal.
Scenario 2: Bitcoin will dump against $ 92,000, which also has a CME gap before reversing and one … pic.twitter.com/pq08pjmabr
– Ted (@Tedpillows) September 15, 2025
Zero cut risk
If the Bitcoin feeding frequency fails to be realized, the crypto rally can reverse heavily. The market participants are already on edge, and the feeling can be detected quickly. Trader Hunts pronounced:
“The crypto markets are back on shaky ground. Bitcoin has withdrawn from the latest heights when traders weigh what Fed will do next. A 25-BP’s interest rate reduction at this week’s FOMC meeting is likely to look out, but President Trump requires even deeper cuts to soften the battle from customs and a cooling job.”
Political pressure complicates this Bitcoin Fed Rate decision, with Altcoin -Rally hanging in the balance right now.
Powell’s guidance key
In addition to the actual Bitcoin Fed Rate decision, Powell’s tone will decide whether Krypto -Rally continues or not. The Fed Chairman’s guidance has looked carefully by the market players, and traders will analyze every word for clues about future policy direction.
Analyst train argued:
“It will not sell the news if Powell speaks in a dove way, which he is extremely likely to do.”
It will not sell the news if Powell speaks in a dovish way, which he is extremely likely to make imo
– Kale AK (People_be) September 15, 2025
Also read: First US Crypto Fund says Bitcoin goes to $ 750,000
Altcoin Rally’s future depends entirely on which scenario is developing, which means that this Bitcoin Fed interest rate decision is quite important for digital assets. September’s traditional capital sales season adds another layer of risk, and crypto markets have gathered for months on expectations of simpler money policy.
