TLDR:
- Hayes warns that a 30 percent decline in Tether’s gold and Bitcoin portfolio could wipe out reported excess reserves.
- Tether’s certificate shows $12.9 billion in gold and $9.9 billion in Bitcoin as part of its growing asset mix.
- The responses argue that retained earnings and broader group capital provide stronger solvency buffers than snapshots show.
- Market attention is increasing as demands for real-time visibility increase among large holders and trading platforms.
Tethers The latest filing has drawn renewed attention after Arthur Hayes warned that its gold and Bitcoin venture could weigh on reserves. The evidence shows an increasing exposure to volatile assets as the stablecoin issuer positions itself for expected interest rate cuts.
Hayes argued that a sharp decline in these holding could absorb Tether’s reported excess reserves. The comments sparked renewed debate about how the company is managing its growing asset mix.
Tether Gold and Bitcoin Allocation sparks market focus
Tether’s Q3 2025 certificate shows $12.9 billion in gold and $9.9 billion in gold Bitcoin. Those positions grew as the company responded to what Hayes described as a shift toward lower interest income.
His view is based on the assumption that interest rate cuts could reduce earnings from Tether’s $135 billion treasury portfolio. He said this would make the company rely more on alternative assets.
Hayes said the combined gold and Bitcoin allocation equals about 13 percent of reserves.
He calculated that a 30 percent reduction could offset the reported $6.8 billion in excess reserves. He said this would put theoretical pressure on stablecoins’ solvency. His comments appeared in a social update reviewing the affidavit.
Responses to the post claimed that these assets come from retained earnings. They said Tether generates more than $10 billion in annual profit. They also said the group has $20-30 billion in equity across related entities. They argued that this creates a larger buffer than the certificate shows.
Tether has not issued any new guidance beyond the released numbers. The company continues to publish testimonials based on quarterly snapshots.
The debate is intensifying over real-time visibility
Hayes said major exchanges and holders may soon demand access to the balance sheet in real time. He said this would help them monitor solvency risk more closely.
His comments referred to Tethers growing exposure to marketable assets. He said the change raises interest in how the company deals with volatility.
His post suggested that traditional media may amplify the story due to wider industry attention. He said this could raise further questions about stablecoin transparency.
The comments sparked a wave of responses across crypto platforms. Market watchers compared Tether’s structure to other reserve-backed issuers.
Supporters of the company pointed to its liquid short-term assets. They said these holdings offer strong coverage even under stress.
Critics said the increasing exposure to volatile assets introduces new uncertainty. They said the evolving mix makes real-time data more valuable to large incumbents.
The discussion continues as the attestation remains the most recent data set available. USDT trading volumes remain stable across major exchanges. The market view may change as new revelations come. Investors continue to watch the asset mix for signs of change.
