The Federal Reserve is now days away from ending its multi-year balance sheet reduction, and the change is beginning to ripple through Bitcoin and crypto discussions. The nearing end of Quantitative Tightening (QT) is a clear turnaround in monetary policy, and analysts are already pointing to historical parallels from the last time QT stopped. A special analysis highlights how earlier transition from QT to liquidity expansion correlated with an alt season, leading to expectations that the same could happen again.
QT’s final days and why it means for bitcoin and crypto
Quantitative tightening has been exerting steady pressure on liquidity since 2022. However, in its latest policy decision (end of October 2025) The US Fed decided to stop the balance sheet and QT ends on 1 December 2025.
The end of quantitative tightening means a transition to a more accommodative environment, where liquidity stops shrinking and investor confidence gradually returns. This is especially important for the crypto sector, which tends to flourish when monetary conditions loosen and capital becomes more liquid.
QT will officially end in seven days, and this will be the end of the most restrictive monetary phase in years. As seen in previous cycles, the conclusion of QT in late 2019 was the start of an intense rally across the altcoin market. As it stands, altcoins have endured several years of underperformance that investors have benefited from Bitcoin and even gold. The macro environment has been unfriendly to high-risk assets, and this has dampened volatility and inflows.
However, this is expected to end when QT is over. The premise is based on the last time QT ended, when the market saw many tokens rise between 10x and 100x in a few months.
The same setup is formed again in November 2025, and from here we can see many leading altcoins such as XRP and Dogecoin is starting to outperform Bitcoin in December 2025, and many altcoins with mid-to-low market caps are on 10x and 100x rallies in the first months of 2026.
OTHERS/BTC Chart. Source: @CryptoReviewing On X
The OTHERS/BTC chart and breakout signs
A significant part of this outlook is based on the OTHERS/BTC chart, which is a market-wide comparison between Bitcoin and the rest of the crypto market outside of the top 10 cryptocurrencies. As shown in the chart above, since the last time quantitative easing ended, the altcoin market outperformed Bitcoin by nearly 630% over the course of 845 days.
Right now, the OTHERS/BTC action is playing out in what looks like a falling wedge pattern with a series of lower highs and lower lows. This pattern is known to be mostly bullish, and the prediction here is a bullish breakout from the upper resistance trendline.
The chart projects another 845-day expansion period, matching the previous cycle, when the QT officially ends. The estimated potential profit is more than 300% for the ANDRA/BTC ratio if a similar pattern develops.
Featured image created with Dall.E, charts from Tradingview.com
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