Cryptoanalyst Cristian Chifoi says that Bitcoin price action repeats the 2022 cycle pattern, but only in reverse. Then, the United States Federal Reserve (FED) Interest rate hikes triggered a staggering 63% crash in BTC price. Now that the FED is preparing to end Quantitative Tightening (QT), Chifoi believes the same macro stance could push prices in the opposite direction, potentially marking the start of Bitcoin’s next big rally.
Bitcoin Price Tracks 2022 Cycle Pattern In Reverse Direction
Chifoi explained on X social media on Nov. 2 that Bitcoin’s behavior appears to be replaying in 2022 the macroeconomic environment backwards. Back in March 2022, he noted that when the FED first announced aggressive interest rate hikes, the Bitcoin price was trending near $46,000. When the US Federal Reserve delivered its first two hikes of 50 and 75 basis points in June of that year, BTC collapsed to $17,000, marking the technical bottom of that bike.
As the FED continued to hike from a total of 175 to 550 bps, the market had already absorbed the shock. Chifoi revealed that Bitcoin had entered its accumulation phase and began to turn higher despite other market experts labeling the central bank’s actions as “irresponsible” and overdue.
Fast forward to the present, Chifoi believes the cycle is now turning. With the FED recently announcing the end of quantitative easing in December, he predicts that the next three-month window could trigger a sharp bullish increase that could driving Bitcoin to a peak rather than a bottom.
He points to the end of December through January 20, 2026, as the key period to watch, suggesting that the crypto market could rally strongly before entering a cooling phase when liquidity fully returns.
Liquidity spikes and repo signals support the thesis
Support his analysis, Chifoi referred a post made by another analyst known as “ChurchOfTheCycle”, who shared a telling FRED chart showing an increase in Overnight Repurchase Agreement—Treasury securities temporarily purchased by the FED in open market operations.
The chart, which spans from 2000 to 2025, shows a sudden and significant increase in repo activity, suggesting potential liquidity injections into the financial system. The analyst noted that this spike alone does not warrant one the market crashesas historically such increases have usually provided a short-term boost for stocks and crypto.
He further noted that the FED’s recent actions indicate stress in the financial system and a early stage of liquidity supportwhich could push speculative assets higher.
Based on this, the analyst predicts that the market may still enter a parabolic phase from Q4 2025 to Q1 2026 before facing a major crash in 2026, roughly 6-12 months from the time of his Nov. 2 post. As a precaution, he cautions traders to monitor credit spreads, repo activity levels and VIX correlation for early signs of tightening liquidity.
Featured image created with Dall.E, charts from Tradingview.com
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