Bitcoin broke through the $ 100,000 level this week and reached $ 104,000 before moderating to about $ 103,000. The move came after the news that we and Chinese officials would sit down in Switzerland to talk about a possible trade agreement. The markets responded quickly. The optimism returned and Bitcoin Step then. But analysts look beyond the headings. Global liquidity is the real history.
Global M2 reaches 111 trillion dollars
Julien Bittel, a macro researcher at Global Macro Investor, believes that the global M2 money supply is a good leading indicator of where Bitcoin goes. He presented a chart that illustrated a 12-week delay between increasing M2 and the price of upper krypton. In short, as M2 increases, Bitcoin follows about three months later.
Many of you have asked for the updated global M2 vs. Bitcoin diagram. Well, here it is …
And yes – it still tells the same story:
We go taller … pic.twitter.com/kv7qse9ign
– Julien Tiny, CFA (@bittjulien) May 9, 2025
Between the beginning of 2023 and the beginning of 2024, Global M2 increased from $ 98 trillion to just over $ 108 trillion. Bitcoin finally broke over $ 100,000. But in the middle of 2024, M2 ceased its ascent for a period.
Bitcoin also tapered and falls below $ 80,000 during that period. Bittel referred to that range as a consolidation phase. Today, M2 moves again – fast. It has passed $ 111 trillion. If that trend continues, BTC can continue to rise in mid -2025.
Bittel said: “We go higher”, pointing to the strong increase in the global M2 as a signal.
Others believe that bitcoin is the best dog
Not everyone agrees with Bittel’s timeline. Analyst Benjamin Cohen aroused doubt about the idea that crypto supply always lags after liquidity changes. He pointed out that Bitcoin hit his heights in 2017 and 2021 before M2 topped. It does not fit the theory of M2 that leads BTC by 12 weeks.
Cohen gave an alternative perspective. He believes that bitcoin could very well lead, with changes in M2 that pop up later. If so, the coin’s latest ascent may keep us that global liquidity can decrease in the coming months.
What if #Bitcoin Leads liquidity, rather than delays it?
Many show this chart, where they compensate Global M2 by 3-4 months and show BTC after that.
The problem is that 2021 shows this offset M2 which goes up for 6 months after BTC topped. pic.twitter.com/gpkbw9jbog
– Benjamin Cowen (@intocryptoverse) May 8, 2025
FTX collapse is still reproduced
Cohen also referred to what happened in 2022, when Bitcoin fell hard. That drop coincided with the M2 bottom – but the drop continued longer due to the FTX deck. He claimed that Bitcoin’s price movements do not always follow the same timeline as M2. Exchange errors such as the one that experienced the rhythm.
This perspective reveals another type of forecast. If BTC releases, rather than leading, the current rally may indicate danger on the horizon – not resilience.
Image from Pexels, Chart from TradingView
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