It looks like bad news is bad news again!
Bitcoin still holds up – but makes no mistakes – the latest swoon in risk resources is the beginning of something bigger.
We are approaching the end of the century’s biggest trend. In the world after 2008, bad news was good news for asset prices. Now it’s over.
If you are a big fan of higher asset prices – 2025 will suck.
Bitcoin is the barometer
Bitcoiners love Bitcoin – but it’s bigger than crypt now.
Today, Bitcoin is the global risk of flagships. When there is a global risk-off-sales party-flash bitcoin first hit-and it gets hit hard.
The market’s perception of risk is the most important fundamental to bitcoin-less day to day. It is quite easy to see that we are in the middle of a risk-off phase, and we think risk-off sales are here to stay.
We saw this upcoming BTW – Read more about this!
OPED: Why Makro headwind could create Crypto’s best buying opportunity
The risk-off-trend will continue. But it will go further and deeper than Wall St. would care about considering right now. Bad news is bad news again.
Powell lets the markets burn
To say the obvious: Jerome Powell is not Ben Bernanke!
The major trend for the 2000s is the central bank’s intervention to support asset prices. To some extent, this began under Alan Greenspan in the wake of the 1987-share market-but it really went directly under Bernanke 2008-9.
We are 100% sure it was a total coincidence that 2008 is the same time as Bitcoin hit the markets.
Regardless, that trend is over. Inflation is the cause of it.
Central banks no longer create good news for asset prices from poor economic news. Without a new game plan – more money means higher inflation across the line – which undermines the power structure.
People get upset when they can’t afford to eat or pay for a place to live. It is absolutely understandable!
Powell is in an inevitable position. Like Paul Volcker in the early 1980s – Powell will create unpopular monetary policy for a terrible economy. The most important takeaway is: Powell will not come to the rescue at any time – so Bitcoin prices are lower.
Everything about curves
If you like finances – you know anything about inverted return curves.
We will not endure you with hundreds of words explaining why inverted return curves scares S#! T Out of Wall St. Watch the video below for more info.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=llcaux19rag
As you can see – we are in a treacherous situation. This would be the first time in modern American financial history that it steeped out of a massive inversion of yield curves did not end in a recession.
Our argument is that the vest went into a depression many years ago – about when the technocratic winners punished the global economy in the Covid19 era.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Q_XBKR-57VS
As I said, things can be so bad in the next 12-18 months that all pranks that government statistics play will not cover how terrible things actually are.
Again – all this is apocalyptic for risks of risks. Especially in an economy where central banks will not step on the gas with cheap money and asset purchases.
Loan!
This year is a major for the government’s borrowing.
Germany Rocked markets with its wild new expenditure plan. Long history short – more German expenses for state means more loans in a world where central banks do not buy government debt.
If the plan is approved, Germany will not be alone in the government that borrows Binge.
The United States has trillion debt to roll over 2025. President McTrumper talks about less USG debt – but on the ground – USG still spends like crazy.
Here is a wild idea of how Us could refi Big Time Existing debt without losing dangerous amounts of liquidity from the markets:
“Bloomberg reports that the compensation (Refi bonds) would be 100-year-old, non-trafficking zero coupon bonds. This means that the bonds would not pay interest. Instead, they would sell at a discount from their nominal value. Holding them to maturity would be the only way to regain the investment and the accompanying return. If one of the countries needed cash, they could borrow temporarily from the Federal Reserve against the bond. “
Media calls it the Mar-A-Lago Accord (or part of it-it is all speculative at the moment). The idea is a throw to Plaza Accord in the 1980s – and we let you know that this nonsense was a strong opportunity last year.
If you feel like keeping us bonds for 100 years, you’re crazy. Sure, some countries that Japan can go for it – because they need the US military that supports them. China can also go for it – for completely different reasons.
Something is better than nothing!
Investors became hyped in the wake of the Trump victory – but global economic reality is horrible.
If we are not invaded by foreigners – there is a serious economic volatility baked over the next 18 months!
The streets suck
The financial economy is the only thing that holds up the real economy.
If you look at the biggest economies – they are in terrible form. The United States, the EU and China beats all, making a sustainable risk strength quite unlikely.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Way0umisogi
We know that central banks are terrified of inflation, which means that simple money does not come to the Jack economy back. China is trying, but it doesn’t work.
The US and the EU are not trying to spend their way to better financial results, which means that prices for financial assets are likely to fall over months to come.
A good year (to buy)
If you have been in the game for a while – you will notice that no one requires the end of crypts anymore. Back 2017 – It was another story.
Unfortunately – while the basics for crypt have never been better – global macro is body sludge of risk resources.
It is obvious that there will be market vollatility in the future – with markets that are grinding lower. Unfortunately, until we see a sea change in monetary policy-is a long-term risk of assets outside the table.
Fiat currency is broken. So if you can collect risk resources in the coming months with a time horizon of years, you are likely to do very well as the global financial system falls apart.
