Make no mistakes – crypts go higher until 2026 and then!
Unfortunately – we are looking at a hard macro environment that can knock down crypts in H1 2025 – or at least PEG BTC prices at current levels when the markets melt a nasty sight.
Bitcoin and gold are both alternatives to cash – and both published all time high USD over the past 6 months. When we look deeper into both complexes – some worrying trends arise.
The latest stock market turbulence points to questions in the macro liquidity situation. Despite US President Trump’s major changes – the financial grounds point to lower risk prices in the medium term.
The Trump pump that hit the markets during the fourth quarter of 2024 ran their course – and now the bill is due.
Trump is a big win for crypts
The crypto -euphoria that hit the markets in November 2024 was well placed. US President Trump is a big gain for the crypto industry. Check out the XRP rally!
The problem is altcoins in general. After a large pump on the way to the end of the year, most of the smaller tokens sell for the new year. Even Dogge looks weak at the moment. Elon Musk is now one of the most powerful men in the United States – but Dogge (token – not the new US government unit) is DOA.
We believe there are major problems in the global market. Maybe things look better on the surface, but the type of optimism and liquidity needed for a phase shift at higher prices is not there.
When the next big leg up and the days with Undermillion USD BTC is something for the history books-we bet that a much different macro environment will be in place. We also imagine that most people will have some exposure to crypt – which is just not the case at the moment.
Central banks are not on their way to 0%
Central banks – especially Fed – does not compete in the graph to 0% interest. Nor are extraordinary measures on the table as they were 2008-9. Obviously, the Fed is so deceived over inflation that it plans to keep the course at current levels.
The latest hot American CPI printing only adds weight to our opinion. Prices don’t go much lower – Despite a winding global economy that punishes 99% at the bottom when 1% rides on its pile with assets to stratospheric heights.
We believe that both Trump and Fed know that there must be a crisis before interest rates can fall to lower levels – and quantitative relief can return. A global financial crisis would fit the bill – and one is really on the way.
Remember that overnight in the United States is still far below the actual rate of inflation (don’t listen to the official interest rate – it’s a great joke). With an effective depth below night (with about 500 points)-is more inflation in the coming years guaranteed.
With more money that chases alternative assets such as Bitcoin-a neck-snap rally over the next few years is anything but certain. We see it as a security – but the time is difficult.
The Fed understands that with trillion USD that will be issued and refinanced in 2025 – accommodating measures are needed.
It is obvious that this is fantastic for crypto prices in the medium term – but it is also likely to create a reduction when a global crisis metastasis – and political coverage for a free monetary party is manufactured.
Strange bed mates
USD, BTC and gold all look like in the last 6 months.
In the short term – this trend is unlikely to continue. A strong USD is a matter for multiple trillion US bond sales and higher alternative asset prices are not good PR for the new McTrumper administration. He is an in vain man.
USD is the simplest solution to the problem.
While a higher USD would be bad for bond sales in a stable global market – if everyone was cheated on capital returns – US debts would sell as crazy. In 2008, it did not matter that the United States was the epicenter for the economic Armageddon – US government debt was the place to be.
Bitcoin was not in 2008 – but gold did. Gold rated together with almost all other assets at that time – apart from US debt – USD – and JPY. In the following years, Gold met new heights, a trend that continues to this day.
This time, Kryptor is hot – and can get into a purchase zone that is an opportunity once in a lifetime. Gold also looks good, although the medium -sized profits in crypto will probably exceed every other asset class globally.
US and the EU are wasted – China is stillborn
A Trump presidency does nothing to deal with structural problems that are decades (or even centuries) during creation. We have no functional global economy. The United States and the EU are products from failed centralization models that destroy value.
Modern markets socialize and privatize gains. And we wonder why political systems don’t work.
Asia was the great hope for economic progress – but most East Asian countries are corrupt, planned centrally and driven by return limit that promotes the decline of population. And then there is the blame. Our world flows on a pile of government debt that cannot be repaid.
Long history short – the global economy is effectively broken. There are no bright spots. It is an anthracite coal mine that lasts forever into the abyss. None of this is soothing for organic economic growth – and that means more government debt that hits the markets in an ever larger amount.
The modern monetary system is a fantastic large group agreement. It is Defacto Central Planning – and there is no way to reform it. The 2008 crisis was a repetition of clothing for the next crisis – and we believe it will meet the global markets in the coming years (not decades).
New opportunities for crypto investments
Crypto is the king of beta – which makes it the perfect asset to hunt when the markets collapse.
The Q4 2024 Trump pump showed how fast markets can move – and fall. Most symbols are not much higher now than they were before the Trump pump started. Take this fact as a precautionary data point. The markets look strained to the upside.
There is every reason to believe that in a few years current crypto prices will look like fantastic entrance points. We are sure of this. But given how much retail optimism is available in risk resources (not just crypts), we are careful at the beginning of H1 2025.
Buying BTC to $ 96,000 is attractive – but $ 45,000 would be much more attractive. We believe it is possible in the next 18 months – or maybe much earlier.
